Episodes, not rules
Gold rose strongly during the 2008–2011 period after the financial crisis, fell sharply from 2011 to 2015, and rose again in 2019–2020. Each period had different drivers: real yields, the dollar, and investor fear.
Studying past episodes builds judgement; it does not provide a formula.
Key takeaways
- Gold has behaved differently in each stress episode.
- History builds judgement, not certainty.
Knowledge check
What should past crises teach us?
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